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Dec 17

Variational Inference for SDEs Driven by Fractional Noise

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 19, 2023

On Path to Multimodal Generalist: General-Level and General-Bench

The Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) is currently experiencing rapid growth, driven by the advanced capabilities of LLMs. Unlike earlier specialists, existing MLLMs are evolving towards a Multimodal Generalist paradigm. Initially limited to understanding multiple modalities, these models have advanced to not only comprehend but also generate across modalities. Their capabilities have expanded from coarse-grained to fine-grained multimodal understanding and from supporting limited modalities to arbitrary ones. While many benchmarks exist to assess MLLMs, a critical question arises: Can we simply assume that higher performance across tasks indicates a stronger MLLM capability, bringing us closer to human-level AI? We argue that the answer is not as straightforward as it seems. This project introduces General-Level, an evaluation framework that defines 5-scale levels of MLLM performance and generality, offering a methodology to compare MLLMs and gauge the progress of existing systems towards more robust multimodal generalists and, ultimately, towards AGI. At the core of the framework is the concept of Synergy, which measures whether models maintain consistent capabilities across comprehension and generation, and across multiple modalities. To support this evaluation, we present General-Bench, which encompasses a broader spectrum of skills, modalities, formats, and capabilities, including over 700 tasks and 325,800 instances. The evaluation results that involve over 100 existing state-of-the-art MLLMs uncover the capability rankings of generalists, highlighting the challenges in reaching genuine AI. We expect this project to pave the way for future research on next-generation multimodal foundation models, providing a robust infrastructure to accelerate the realization of AGI. Project page: https://generalist.top/

Data-driven Tracking of the Bounce-back Path after Disasters: Critical Milestones of Population Activity Recovery and Their Spatial Inequality

The ability to measure and track the speed and trajectory of a community's post-disaster recovery is essential to inform resource allocation and prioritization. The current survey-based approaches to examining community recovery, however, have significant lags and put the burden of data collection on affected people. Also, the existing literature lacks quantitative measures for important milestones to inform the assessment of recovery trajectory. Recognizing these gaps, this study uses location-based data related to visitation patterns and credit card transactions to specify critical recovery milestones related to population activity recovery. Using data from 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County (Texas), the study specifies four critical post-disaster recovery milestones and calculates quantitative measurements of the length of time between the end of a hazard event and when the spatial areas (census tracts) reached these milestones based on fluctuations in visits to essential and non-essential facilities, and essential and non-essential credit card transactions. Accordingly, an integrated recovery metric is created for an overall measurement of each spatial area's recovery progression. Exploratory statistical analyses were conducted to examine whether variations in community recovery progression in achieving the critical milestones is correlated to its flood status, socioeconomic characteristics, and demographic composition. Finally, the extent of spatial inequality is examined. The results show the presence of moderate spatial inequality in population activity recovery in Hurricane Harvey, based upon which the inequality of recovery is measured. Results of this study can benefit post-disaster recovery resource allocation as well as improve community resilience towards future natural hazards.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 20, 2022

Agentic Deep Graph Reasoning Yields Self-Organizing Knowledge Networks

We present an agentic, autonomous graph expansion framework that iteratively structures and refines knowledge in situ. Unlike conventional knowledge graph construction methods relying on static extraction or single-pass learning, our approach couples a reasoning-native large language model with a continually updated graph representation. At each step, the system actively generates new concepts and relationships, merges them into a global graph, and formulates subsequent prompts based on its evolving structure. Through this feedback-driven loop, the model organizes information into a scale-free network characterized by hub formation, stable modularity, and bridging nodes that link disparate knowledge clusters. Over hundreds of iterations, new nodes and edges continue to appear without saturating, while centrality measures and shortest path distributions evolve to yield increasingly distributed connectivity. Our analysis reveals emergent patterns, such as the rise of highly connected 'hub' concepts and the shifting influence of 'bridge' nodes, indicating that agentic, self-reinforcing graph construction can yield open-ended, coherent knowledge structures. Applied to materials design problems, we present compositional reasoning experiments by extracting node-specific and synergy-level principles to foster genuinely novel knowledge synthesis, yielding cross-domain ideas that transcend rote summarization and strengthen the framework's potential for open-ended scientific discovery. We discuss other applications in scientific discovery and outline future directions for enhancing scalability and interpretability.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 18